What is your sight? Garud drishti or Sarp drishti??

 

What is your sight? Eagle or Snake?

Our ancient scriptures have given a beautiful example of Garud drishti (Eagle) and Sarp (Snake) drishti

Lord Vishnu to which goddess Laxmi (wealth) is attracted is seen in 2 postures! One is seated on snake and one riding on Garud.

 

Garud and Snake drishti has any relevance in Investing?😑. Yes it has and that is why I am writing this blog.

Eagle can fly high and can have wider and helicopter view whereas Snake being a serpent can only see what is available at the eye ball level alias what is visible nearby.

I want to relate the analogy to the Investing. And believe me, it matches well 😄👍

Equity Investors are required to have Garud drishti – Long term view. That helps them to create huge wealth. But having said that, Sarp drishti is equally important. If one is seeing the pain in economy and corporate profitability growth, he must quickly reach out to his financial consultant and discuss about the strategy to take advantage of the markets.

Sapr drishti helps in re-aligning portfolio which will prove to be relevant to market in times to come. Here investor redeems some part of profits and takes gain home. In Gujarati we have saying “Nafo chopda par nahi, ghar ma aavo joeye” meaning profits should not lie in books alone, we must bring it in Bank also.

Garud and Sarp drishti is performed by every investor at the same time, therefore which sight to use and when to use it also important👍

Let’s take current situation, we are aware that world economies are going thru tremendous pain of Covid 19 related lockdown and disruptions but still equities are scaling newer highs. Only bright side is huge liquidity pumped in by central Banks. And another one could be TINA factor in assets. With Bonds at abysmally low yields and gold at historical highs, equity looks only place to be in. Properties across the world are still not viewed as better than equity. I don’t think another 3 yrs will be any good for house or office space. USA is seeing sharp increase in “For Sale” billboards outside apartments. Investors realised that property involves large sum of money, taxes, transaction cost and poor liquidity. Therefore equity will remain preferred choice. Its anybody’s guess, how long party in stock markets continues. Good part of data suggests that trading volumes have gone up from first time investors, retired people and home bound people who are taking trading as tool to kill time (Hope they don’t kill their wealth, in bargain). So new entrants are seeing rally in market and buying equities to create wealth. Whereas at the same juncture, Wise investors are reducing equity (Sapr drishti) and reallocating to equity in staggered fashion (use of Sapr drishti with eyes of Garud also).

 In such a scenario, we are advising investors to reduce weight in equity and keep gun powder dry (Sarp drishti). Complete exit from equity can have consequences in any market cycles (Garud drishti).

Within equity allocation also, Investors put their money where the returns have been great in past few yrs. Such calls mostly turn out to be Sarp call. Few examples of Sapr drishti currently are as below. I am not suggesting that below aren’t Garud calls, but are certainly not good bet given the current valuations.

1)      US Tech companies

2)      Assured returns Insurance policies

3)      ETFs

4)      Large caps

5)      Healthcare sector

6)      Gold

7)      Debt funds

Do you know Garud calls for the next few years?? Do write to me @ wealthcarein@gmail.com or WhatsApp me @ 9833778887

 

Bhavesh Damania I Founder and Chief Care Taker- Wealthcare Investments I Personal Finance Guest- CNBC TV 18, CNBC Bajaar, Outlook Money, Mint I Blogger

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VUCA event for World!

VUCA event for World!!!

VUCA stands for

Volatility

Uncertainty

Complexity

Ambiguity

It’s true that understanding the world economies and Investment outlook carries VUCA element. Debate will be whether it is higher or lower at a given point.

My sense is the perfect example of VUCA is now. Sub-prime crisis of 2008 did had heightened VUCA but this time it’s highest since then.

Sub Prime crisis of 2008 wasn’t a heightened VUCA as compared with Covid 19 crisis, for below reasons.

1)      The crisis was specific to US Banking and financial services system. Of course it had ripple effect in world but was largely limited to western world.

2)      It was limited to financial services sector and real estate sector. Other industries were up and running as usual.

3)      There was no lockdown in any part of the world. Not even for a single day.

4)      There were Pay cuts in Banking and Financial Services Industry (BFSI) across the world. There were major Job losses in BFSI sector only. Some in Real estate. Majorly in developed markets.

5)      Recessionary conditions were less than current Covid 19.

6)      Business confidence in world wasn’t too bad.

7)      That was financial crisis and this one is health crisis manifested into economic, geopolitical crisis as well.

8)      Very small part of world population was impacted.

9)      Sub Prime crisis had followed after robust global growth. People and governments in world had decent savings and lesser leverages.

Covid 19 crisis is far from over. USA has seen second wave of infection. The daily numbers had dropped from 33-35k per day to 20-25k. Now since few days, numbers are rising past 45k per day. India too has started to report numbers in excess of 18k per day. Not sure if we are into community transmission stage yet. If community transmission and 2^nd wave should start in India, we would surpass USA also.

Despite all the above points, stock market revival after Sub Prime crisis took more than a year whereas this one seems to be over in matter of months😊

Let’s examine each element of VUCA in current context.

1)      Volatility: Stock markets and economic activities collapsed in world. Stock markets fell off the cliff in March and recaptured major lost grounds. NASDAQ is at historic high. Nifty50 and Sensex (excl financials) are kissing all-time high. Such a massive fall and rise is also historic for India surely. I guess volatility will be higher in times to come!!

2)      Uncertainty: Uncertainties, currently, are at multiple fronts👍. Uncertainty of bad debts, demand revival, business outlook, lifting of lockdown, 2^nd phase of Covid, Job security, availability of medical assistance if infected, Government policies, Indo- China relationship, Trade war, Medical breakthrough etc.

3)      Complexity: Complexity of world order, supply chain, International relations, which industry will survive, thrive or extinct. Which skillsets will determine employability, business and trade structures post Covid era (as they are likely to get disrupted and new models will evolve)

4)      Ambiguity: All the above points leaves situation ambiguous and ever evolving. Currently every citizen in world is making Guess-timates about the future but is unaware of the possible outcome. Government policies announcement, interpretation and implementation. Salaried is unaware if the pay cut is final or it can cut even further or might have to loose the job😢. Business owner not sure of the possible turnover, recovery of creditors, Bad debts, loan availability and labour supply.

Hope my attempt to articulate the VUCA gave you some insight into the subject and current situation.

Do comment, share and like🙏

 

Want to have word with me and explore opportunities from this crisis? Text me on 9833778887 or drop in a mail on wealthcarein@gmail.com

Bhavesh Damania I Founder and Chief Care Taker- Wealthcare Investments I Personal Finance Guest- CNBC TV 18, CNBC Bajaar, Outlook Money, Mint I Blogger

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"Risk comes until you know what, where and why you are Investing”

 

 

Rural Economy is doing good, therefore revival will be faster, Market is going up!!

Rural Economy is doing good, therefore revival will be faster, Market is going up!!

In my earlier blogs, I covered “Boycott China” Impact on our economy and market rally!

Today, attempting to share my thoughts on another factor “Revival in rural demand and which is why markets are going up”

Discussion highlight in media is:

1)      Rural economy is doing well this time due to better crop in quality and quantity.

2)       Tractor sales are good.

3)      Rural consumption is picking up!!

4)      Loan book under moratorium are reducing.

5)      Lower than anticipated NPAs etc.

So, I wonder, if Rural India was in pain for last few yrs, how come one crop season and larger MGNREGA dole out, change the dynamics sustainably? If the rural India had borrowed the money in yester years, they are more likely to repay the loan and de-leverage themselves (important to note that Indians are not credit cultured like western world). If this hypothesis is right than future demand (except basic needs) will suffer. Another point to note is, how rural demand is improving? Aren’t factors like, migration of labour and MGNREGA scheme responsible for the artificial support to demand? Rural India largely consumes basic products (food and essentials). Rural India needs to drive the aspirational product consumption which can be called as the revival. Tractor demand was subdued since years so if there is demand for the same, it can be attributed to necessary replacement demand (can’t wait anymore, but have to change).

Labourers who also support their families in native place (that’s the very reason why they move to cities) which drive the rural demand. The migrant labour is jobless and in his native place. Of the 5 metros - Chennai, Delhi and Mumbai are in lockdown still. I call it lockdown as till the time Local trains, Metro rails and Buses don’t ply, metro cities operate at less than 50% efficiency. In best case scenario, if all the migrant labour will be employed and at the Pre Covid incomes, they would have still lost good 3-5 months of employment and Income. Isn’t it good enough to expect weak demand in future months!! Large rural demand is also supported by the workers who leave India for employment. Gulf countries have many Indians working or doing small businesses there. Their unemployment will have to be factored in. India receives largest foreign remittances in world.

Let’s see another dimension and check the hard numbers of unemployment in India- As per CMIE, unemployment rate in Feb 2020 was 7.76% which spiked upto 23% in Apr and May. Currently the same number is about 13%. MGNREGA helped the unemployment rate come down drastically. Not sure how long the government stimulus will continue. Important point to note is employment does not necessarily mean at the satisfactory salary levels. For example, if skilled labour was earning 25k per month is employed for mere 10-15k per month at farm or MGNREGA. So technically he is employed but his purchasing power has reduced significantly👍.

Let’s examine few industries which employs large number of labour (including white and blue collar jobs)!! Entertainment, Retail, Tourism, Real estate, Hospitality. These industries are going to take lot of time to get back to Pre Covid levels. Isn’t that going to impact the economy for relatively longer time?

 I hope I am able to do justice to the “rural demand revival” story and present another perspective to the same. If you agree and find it useful, pls acknowledge the same on FB, LinkedIn and Twitter.

Be careful in allocation to equity. I don’t think markets can sustain rally for long.

Markets are running on steroid doses of liquidity and hopes of global recovery. Nothing in world (or for that matter, India) has changed for good. Helicopter money is just delaying the worst news!!

Want to have word with me and explore creating wealth? Text me on 9833778887 or drop in a mail on wealthcarein@gmail.com

Bhavesh Damania I Founder and Chief Care Taker- Wealthcare Investments I Personal Finance Guest- CNBC TV 18, CNBC Bajaar, Outlook Money, Mint I Blogger

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"Risk comes until you know what, where and why you are Investing”

 

Boycott China and Market rally!

Headlines in Media and Social media are Boycott China, Delete Chinese apps, Swadeshi apnao and because of the same India will shine and therefore the markets should receive the valuation premium now!!

And here is the market, going up up and up😊 

I am not able to reconcile my thoughts still, when-

-          Lockdown extended, Market going up!

-          Covid cases going up, Markets going up!!

-          Poor global news- Civilians loot/unrest in US, increase in global Covid 19 cases, anti-China movements, markets going up!!!

-          Second of wave of Covid 19 is coming back, Markets going up!!!!

Global economic recoveries are still far from Mar 2020 levels but markets are running past the recovery😢

I tried to figure out the possible reason from various people in Investment fraternity, and the responses I received are as follows:

1)      Large amount of liquidity is been pumped in by Central Banks.

2)      World is realising to “live with Covid 19” and cure/Vaccine will be out soon.

3)      US election in Nov ‘20 and POTUS (President Of The US) wants to keep markets high until then.

4)      Indian Government is ensuring that China shouldn’t buy stake in Indian Jewels (good companies) at throw away prices. Like it did in HDFC Bank. So keeping markets supported. Not sure how is it possible and how long can government do it.

5)      Global manufacturers will move out of China and their choice destination will be India. Therefore India deserves the premium.

6)      Few Indian trader’s body voluntarily decided to stop Chinese import and support Indian manufacturers therefore India should do well!!

I have written about the global economic recovery and Covid 19 etc in past. Let me share few thoughts on the Chinese angle today.

While India and world is angry and unhappy with China’s attitude and its suspicious role in recent past, there is little that can change for India in short term. What can change for India in long term will be outcome of government policies. Recall, we announced tax sops in Sept 2019!! That’s not enough. Any foreign company (or domestic entrepreneur) will also seek easy laws on labour, land, tax compliances and better infrastructure for transport, storage etc. You know its not easy task in India🙏

In short term also, I am not very bullish that we can actually get rid of Chinese imports even by 20-25% adjusted to fall in demand. Patriotic echoes are loud but are more emotional and less practical. We must, in medium to long run, be self sufficient country with least imports from China. Its good even economically😊. But China has made deep inroads into global supply chain that no country can boycott Chinese products. It’s an era of consumerism, you can’t make something unavailable to people.

My guess is, in almost every products, 10-90% of the parts/components are made in China!! Now just imagine, can a product be ready for sale even if 1 or 2% parts/components are missing? So next alternate would be to procure domestically or import from rest of the world. If this is done, cost of production will go up therefore price will go up or margins will shrink. Both are not good for India. There are many products or components, we don’t manufacture in India. There are a few which only china manufactures for the world. In such cases, import will be the only option.

Higher price would mean lower consumer demand and lower margins would mean poor corporate performance leading to unemployment, lower debt servicing etc.

Just to add to all the stories, if we reduce Chinese imports, what can China do to us politically, economically and diplomatically? Just think about it👍. Many critical infrastructure projects (incl 5G network and few government projects) are not possible without China.

So in nutshell, do not get carried away by the china related development, if there is development, its negative (strain in relationship with China, war not possible).

Be careful in allocation to equity. I don’t think markets can sustain rally for long.

Markets are running on steroid doses of liquidity and hopes of global recovery. Nothing in world (or for that matter, India) has changed for good. Helicopter money is just delaying the worst news!!

Want to have word with me? Text me on 9833778887 or drop in a mail on wealthcarein@gmail.com

Bhavesh Damania I Founder and Chief Care Taker- Wealthcare Investments I Personal Finance Guest- CNBC TV 18, CNBC Bajaar, Outlook Money, Mint I Blogger

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"Risk comes until you know what, where and why you are Investing”

Lessons for Investors, advisors and AMCs from winding up of 6 schemes of FT

Lessons for Investors, advisors and AMCs from winding up of 6 schemes of FT

I have written a blog on Mutual Fund Sahi Hai and covered good bit about the Mutual Funds and its advantages also. If you have missed it, read it here.

https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/7225299464715636707/1228797090538678759

Would urge you to read above blog before reading this blog!! It will help you understand it well.

I see many (so called) experts who flood social media who may or may not have direct investments into these 6 schemes of FT are also talking about it and spreading their view points. I also thought to voice out my view point. Hope this helps existing and prospective investors of MF too!!

Before going further, I will make disclosure that-

1)      “I haven’t suggested or Invested monies in any of the FT debt funds nor had any allocation in Credit Risk funds of industry. In fact if any investors, had monies in Credit Risk funds, I have promptly told them to redeem (despite the fact that these Investments were made thru us). I believe it’s my duty to guide on overall portfolio of the client.

2)      I understand the pain of the Investors who’s monies are stuck in these 6 FT schemes and have empathy for them.

3)      I am not biased towards FT and have zero AUM with them. I also believe FT should satisfy the large number of Investors and draw up a plan to liquidate the assets in best possible manner, that investors feel satisfied.

4)      I also believe that what has happened shouldn’t have happened as “liquidity on call” is MF’s promise and therefore Investor’s right. But I also understand that the situation got aggravated with lockdown and negative sentiments in Bond market.

5)      I also believe that regulator and industry is all set to correct the course and bring back confidence/ transparency in MF industry. Satisfying all parties will never be possible, but satisfying most would mean justice done👍 .

In hindsight, everyone is right. If the fury is from affected investors, it’s justified but if it’s from the watcher or critic, they need to be responsible and not try to attract eyeballs!! Everyone has freedom to speak and write😊

I tell my clients “Post Mortems are successful but operations can fail.” So as Advisor/Investor/ Fund Manager, who does operation, are likely to fail sometimes.

Let me now talk about the responsibilities of 3 constituents of Investments viz Investor, Advisor and the Fund Management team (AMC).

AMC:

1)      AMC and the fund Management team should have acted more wisely in the scenario when Lockdown was quite possible and expectations were built 1 month before.

2)      Credit scenario was bad and clouds were not off the sky since 2 yrs. This should have prompted fund managers to cut their exposures in high risk and illiquid holdings. Bravado attitude of higher yield to investors was avoidable for some time. It would have meant low AUM but want bring situation to wind up of 6 schemes.

3)      Investors found to be smarter than the fund management team, who exited schemes before the time in anticipation of problems. AMC did fail to be ahead here.

Advisor:

1)      WM/RM/Advisors/agents or distributors should have done due diligence and study before advising any product. It’s your responsibility to do because clients invests money on your trust, knowledge and prudence.

2)      Advisors have fiduciary responsibility towards the Investors and should have watched the situation closely. If NPAs are making headlines since 4-5 yrs, how can a portfolio with low rated papers be sold to Investors on expectation of higher returns?? These 6 schemes are also sold as alternate to FDs in some cases – a crime in my language.

3)      There were continuous downgrades and defaults in many schemes. Big names like ILFS, DHFL, Indiabulls, Essel, Vodafone etc have surfaced in 2 yrs. This should have been enough to trigger caution.

4)      If your investor insists on high yield investments, have you shared your perspective on the possible risk attached to it? If Investor knew it all, he will not invest thru you!! You should do your job no matter what the pressure be like. Today the same client will leave you and go to another person.

Investor:

1)      With pinch of salt, investors must also accept that they are not holy cow. It’s your own hard earn money! Have you done enough research about who you are investing with? I know lot of people invest thru relatives, neighbourhood agent, old known source etc. If you do not pay attention to your money, how good is it to expect someone else will pay attention. Child with maid and child with mother, who does better?

2)      Haven’t you seen segregated portfolio in your valuation report? Have you monitored your portfolio with diligence from time to time? Did you ask right questions to your advisor? Did you get satisfactory response from advisor?

3)      While investing, a thought that you worked hard to earn this money, will make you more responsible towards it!! I am not asking you to be fanatic but in unusual times, you must also become vigilant.

4)      Spend some time in identifying good advisor. See if your goals and his goals are aligned. Is he/she can offer continuity and consistency of relationship? Check the knowledge levels and can you trust your money with them?

5)      Caveat emptor- “Buyers Beware”. Investor should beware that if there is loss, it will be only your’s and not advisor’s or AMC’s. So choose wise advisor who has knowledge and pedigree to steer thru cycles. Best drivers and the one’s who can drive on rough terrain.

Not to underscore the responsibilities of AMCs and Advisors, It’s Investor who needs to be careful in choosing. That’s why our signature line is “Risk comes until you know what, where and why you are investing”

I am willing to offer free consultation on your queries, concern over the phone. Pls text me on 9833778887.

Bhavesh Damania I Founder and Chief Care Taker- Wealthcare Investments I Personal Finance Guest- CNBC TV 18, CNBC Bajaar, Outlook Money, Mint, Navabharat I Blogger

wealthcarein@gmail.com and 9833778887

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UNLOCK 1.0

Unlock 1.0. Here are things Investors should do

When you face with Fracture in your leg and after due treatment doctor advises you to live normal life as before!! Will you be careful and gradual in getting back to normalcy or just do everything you do otherwise, from next day?

You are likely to behave responsible!! You will gradually move to lead normal life which will take another 2 weeks for you to walk fast and may be a month more to run! Basically, here, doctor shifted responsibility of prudence on you!!

Same will be the case in UNLOCK 1.0 for you! Central has allowed many things to open and operate with final directives left to state and local administration. So now citizens are made to behave responsibly!! Government will not intervene in micro life management.

Before you start to live normal life, examine below:

1)      Has anything changed for good in last few days?

2)      Has Covid 19 cases reduced to zero?

3)      Are cases reducing in my locality and city?

4)      Have I got any Vaccine to save from Covid 19

5)      Is medicine being found?

6)      Has the infection rate and strength reduced?

7)      Hotels and restaurants will open, will you go?

8)      Religious places will open, will you go to worship?

9)      Malls will open, will you go shopping?

10)   Trains will ply, will you take travels or avoid as far as possible?

If answer to all the above is not Yes, you know what you must do!!

Unlock 1.0 is manifestation of the erstwhile Green and Orange zone concept. Administration wants citizens to use prudence and chart their daily life. Almost everything will be open but should you splurge will be your own decision!

Coming to Investing now. That’s what you look up to me for😊

Market may scale up in next week, cheering Unlock 1.0. Market will view it as light at the end of tunnel and will start factoring in end of Lockdown sooner or later.

My suggestion would be to stay on course with your investment. Do not jump into investing aggressively. Spread Investing across 5-6 month time frame. Do not worry if market goes up substantially. Market is yet to find many answers before it could take direction. In fact, I am of the opinion, if market goes up, I would rather ease my equity holding and build cash buffer to take opportunity/bottom fishing. I am sure market will present opportunities surely😊

Top 5 states with respect to number of cases are also economically important for our GDP growth. These top 5 states are Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, Gujarat and Rajasthan. UP is largest labour supplier state is at number 7 but likely to feature in top 5 very soon.  

Fundamentally, market will seek clarity on

1)      Exit of Lockdown. Opening of entire supply chain.

2)      3^rd Phase of infection and response to it.

3)      Ramping up number of tests

4)      Possibility of return of 2^nd wave of Covid 19. We will learn from global peers.

5)      Demand outlook of consumers

6)      Solvency of enterprises

7)      Job loss numbers and salaries

8)      Return of labour to industries.

9)      Global demand and economic outlook

10)   Geo political development.

11)   Possibilities of Global recession

Do connect with me if you wish to know, what is our investment strategy for you!!

If you find our blogs helpful, please do like, share and comment

Author –

Bhavesh D Damania

Founder & Chief Care Taker - Wealthcare Investments

EduPrenuer, TV show panellist and Blogger

You can reach him at 9833778887 and wealthcarein@gmail.com

"Risk comes until you know what, where and why you are Investing”

 

 

What should fully Invested person do Now?

3 things that fully invested person can do!!

Most of the investors who are fully invested, were found to be in 100% equity only. Very few fully invested people are in debt or Asset allocator funds etc. Our all clients have either Asset allocator funds, Arbitrage fund or Liquid fund in their portfolio. The allocation is ranging from 20-40%.

Today, I will talk about the 3 things that such investors (fully invested equity Investor) can do!!

1)      Review your portfolio – Equity market has bounced back quite a bit now. Quickly reach out to your advisor, Wealth Manager of Relationship manager (if he hasn’t reached out to you yet) and take action relevant to portfolio. It could be wise to generate some cash balance. Those who think, I am long term investor and market will revive sooner or later, may not be able to take advantage of current market. If your advisor, WM or RM hasn’t approached you yet, don’t hesitate to approach him. It’s your money and you need to be vigilant, he may not care as much as you care about your money😊.

2)      Prepare strategy to take advantage of the crisis- If your advisor is not reachable/capable to prepare strategy, you need to do it yourself (unfortunately though). You will have to make scenario analysis and the actions thereof. Example – What if market falls another 10%, What if market rises another 10%, how I should re-align my portfolio into Debt + Equity + Gold and further allocation to large/mid/Small in equity side and duration/credit risk etc. on debt side. If you don’t have plan in place, when markets will throw up challenge or opportunity, you will not be able to act decisively.

3)      Be systematic and committed- Coming 12-18 months are going to be testing time for Investors. You will not be able to exit the equity market due to its brighter outlook, and not be able to weather the volatility of the market. Many questions are to be answered and trends needs to be observed after world exits lockdown. What/ how and how much things will change are Guesstimation at the moment. So time will be trying and you got to be committed to the plan. If you leave half way, you will be at disadvantage.

I must also mention here that if you are not confident on your advisor/RM or WM and if you are not willing to stick to his/her plan, than adopt status quo!! Reason of saying this is, a seasoned hand is likely to do wonderful job and make good use of the once in decade opportunity. And if you are going to behave volatile, than the entire strategy may not be advantageous.

 

Do connect with me if you wish to know, what our investment strategy is for you!!

If you find our blogs helpful, please do like, share and comment

Author –

Bhavesh D Damania

Founder & Chief Care Taker - Wealthcare Investments

EduPrenuer, TV show panellist and Blogger

You can reach him at 9833778887 and wealthcarein@gmail.com

"Risk comes until you know what, where and why you are Investing”